LLY

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Eli Lilly (LLY) trades near $1,150, up about 52% over the past year, and is now worth more than a trillion dollars. At that size the easy read is that the big money has been made. But Lilly has barely started selling Foundayo, its oral obesity medicine, outside the United States. So how much is left? The scenario below starts from Lilly's own trailing numbers, but the growth, margin, and multiple it assumes are ours. It is not a forecast and not a price target.

Eli Lilly stakes its trillion-dollar valuation on mid-stage data for a two-drug obesity combo, and the September 30 readout will reveal whether eloraTZP is a genuine franchise leap or an expensive gamble on incremental gains.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) stock has returned about 57% over the past year, against about 17% for the S&P 500. On the earnings it has already banked, that price looks expensive. But those earnings carry STELARA, which is losing share to biosimilar competition. What looks dear on earnings already reported comes down sharply on the earnings analysts expect.

Healthcare stocks declined late Friday afternoon, with the NYSE Healthcare Index and the State Stree

Merck (MRK) stock returned about 87% over the past twelve months, climbing from roughly $79 to about $147. Nothing in the year's results looks like that. The medicines Merck sells today grew at their usual pace. Investors spent the year repricing what comes next.